Is the Azur economy struggling? Maybe not, but it is on the brink of zero growth. This is the conclusion from the 2012 report presented by Bernard Kleynhoff, president of the CCI, with Yonn Grossi (UPE06) and Jean-Pierre Galvez (Chamber of Trades and Crafts). They all agree on the diagnosis: their associates are suffering, and if 2012 was the year of slowdown, this year could be the year of contraction. Moreover, all indicators are unanimous: the first quarter is off to a poor start, and the outlook could be even worse.
But let’s come to the figures (2012 compared to 2011 in %): faced with an inflation of 1.3%, turnover only increased by 0.5%, exports more or less held at 1.5%, with inevitable consequences on employment: 0.
And this—says Bernard Kleynhoff—after a rather satisfactory previous year (2011>2010) which ended with a +3% that brought smiles to economic operators.
But in 2012, the scenario abruptly changed: a positive first half followed by significant slowdown in the second half, hence the final result.
As for sectors, while industry and services held up (+1.5%), commerce suffered from the decline in household consumption (-1.5%), while construction is in a significant decline: -3%. The budgetary tightening policies of the State and local authorities are showing all their negative impact here, as is the crisis in real estate for individuals.
As for regions, the Nice area presents the most unfavorable health report, with negative figures for both turnover and employment: both at -0.5. In contrast, Grasse shows encouraging performance with a +4% increase in business volume and a very good +1.5% in terms of employment.
For 2013, Bernard Kleynhoff did not hide his concern, even his pessimism: all trends show a ‘negative’ sign and range between moderate and strong negative forecasts, giving little reason for comfort regarding economic health. Particularly, the construction and public works sectors face an uncertain future, and being major employers, their crisis will inevitably have repercussions.
Furthermore, Yvon Grosso’s intervention, statistics at hand, couldn’t have been more realistic: even if overall employment (461,000) increased by 1.2% (in the third quarter of 2012), the number of job seekers is on the rise (57,400), with an increase of 10%, a percentage that goes well beyond that of the PACA region.
Conclusion: While waiting for the implementation of attractive conditions for national and international investors to discover that Nice and its region are not only vacation spots but also places to position their activities, local economic decision-makers have no choice but to wait for the global recovery that will restart the engine.
Unfortunately, the wait will not be brief. So, a cruel question arises: how many will not have the strength and capacity to be there at that moment?
