The new economic growth forecasts for all 191 member countries of the International Monetary Fund are hardly encouraging. Prospects for emerging countries are slightly improving, whereas they tend to be faltering in advanced economies.
The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.1% this year, 1.7% in the eurozone, and 1.3% in France, a rate of growth that is too slow and could fuel protectionism, with global GDP expected to grow by 3.4% overall in 2017.
These growth rates may seem quite satisfactory in light of the growth rates experienced by Europe over the past ten years or so. Except they relate to the global economy as a whole.
However, given the catch-up by emerging countries and the needs of developing economies, experts believe that below a rate of 2.5%, the global economy is nearly in recession.
The specter of persistent stagnation, particularly in advanced economies, could fuel populist calls and trade and immigration exchange restrictions.
The recovery that had reached 2% in the eurozone in 2015 tends to be faltering, dropping to 1.7% this year and 1.5% next year.
Incidentally, it is noted that France is below the European average, with a growth rate of barely 1.3% for the three years 2015-2016 and 2017.
As for the United Kingdom, which has fared fairly well in recent years (2.2% growth in 2015), the IMF predicts that Brexit will start to really take a toll next year, leading to a halving of its growth forecast for the British economy in 2017 (1.1%).
Eight years after the great recession of 2008-2009, “global recovery remains weak and precarious,” says the IMF. It calls on governments to implement “coordinated policies.”
