If vaccination campaigns are successfully carried out worldwide, global growth is expected to rebound to 5.6% this year, or even higher. Inflationary pressures are of little concern to the Organization, which believes that central banks should maintain their accommodative policies.
For Laurence Boone, the chief economist of the OECD, global GDP should exceed the pre-pandemic level by mid-2021.
Increasing the pace of vaccinations globally is the main priority, both from an epidemiological and economic standpoint, for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which presented new forecasts this Tuesday.
After a slump of 3.4% last year, global growth is expected to reach 5.6% in 2021. This is 1.4 percentage points more than was anticipated last December.
All countries are affected except for France and Italy, whose forecasts have been slightly revised downward to 5.9% (-0.1 point) and 4.1% (-0.2). Germany is credited with 3% (+0.2) and the United Kingdom with 5.1% (+0.9). The United States sees its performance significantly improved, as the OECD revised its forecast from 3.2% in December to… 6.5%!
The beneficial effect of the Biden plan
The measures proposed by the new administration—a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan—could increase U.S. production by about 3 to 4 percent on average between the first quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. “Overall, this American plan would add an additional point of growth to the global economy,” predicted Laurence Boone.
