Nice Premium: Philippe, how is the French presidential election perceived in Germany?
Philippe Raimondi: Speaking with my friends, reading the press, and watching the news, we realize that there is at least curiosity about this neighbor that so resembles Asterix and Bocuse.
Germans observe and feel that something important is happening in France, that voter mobilization is stronger. They follow the fact that in France, no one wants another April 21st, but rather a second round where a real debate could take place this time. But nothing is certain. What is also foreign to German voters is the principle of voting for your favorite candidate in the first round and then deciding for the “lesser evil” in the second round.
But as the newspaper “Die Welt” says, Germans sense the end of a generation and are waiting. They finally want to know who they will be dealing with. I quote Die Welt: “It seems that the French, after 25 years of Mitterrand and Chirac, are longing for change. This has favored the nomination of Ségolène Royal as the PS candidate. Nicolas Sarkozy also falls into this category when he criticizes the ‘single thought’ and promises to change politics.” Otherwise, oddly enough, the popular press, especially the widely read tabloid “Bild Zeitung,” still talks little about the campaign. There is also concern about a possible new rise of the extremes: here, both extreme right and extreme left, despite French preconceptions, are still quite weak and poorly regarded.
NP: Which candidate is emerging in the Germanic press?
PR: Really none. The Germans hold the presidency of Europe until June 2007 and are eagerly awaiting the May 6th results to try to advance Europe, which is stuck.
Mrs. Merkel has hosted Nicolas Sarkozy and Mrs. Royal without appearing with them in front of the press and aiming to remain as neutral as possible. Carefully, they do not want to offend anyone and not to interfere. Of course, Nicolas Sarkozy competent but remains for Germans too committed and arduous defender of Alstom against Siemens, when this German giant wanted to buy our struggling company. Ségolène Royal is also quite present: she charmed at the beginning because she is a woman and Germany is currently led by a woman. Therefore, comparisons have been made.
And then there’s been Bayrou recently, the novelty in polls that often takes Germany and its grand coalition as an example: this amuses the Germans, who no longer believe in it much after a year and a half of experience. Yesterday evening again on ZDF (the national public broadcaster), a report criticized this government that for months has made no decisions. A summit meeting yesterday yielded nothing while reforms remain necessary: tax cuts after a 3% VAT increase, funding of the healthcare system, pensions. The FAZ (Frankfurter Allgemein Zeitung) wrote recently, I quote: “The grand coalition advocated by Bayrou is a guarantee of immobility.”
NP: How do French people in Germany feel about this upcoming election?
PR: The French in Germany are more motivated than in 2002, and we expect much less abstention (63% and 55% in the second round in 2002). French people in Germany are suddenly courted by presidential candidates: Ségolène Royal and the former foreign minister, Michel Barnier, even traveled to Berlin.
It must be said that on the eve of this presidential election, the consular lists have recorded a record number of registrations. If in France, there was a 7.5% increase in electoral registrations compared to the previous presidential election, the figures for French people in Germany have exploded with an increase of… 85.5%! Increasingly numerous, French expatriates, concerned about the image of their country of origin in Germany, are becoming increasingly involved in French political life: supporters, the curious, and the undecided… Today, mobilization is more significant.
The PS has many activists in Germany and five sections, Berlin, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Munich, according to Mrs. Meixner, the president of the PS section of Berlin. With the wave of memberships to the party at 20 euros, the Berlin section has rejuvenated and with it, the launch of a more significant action on the ground. Rejuvenation also in the ranks of the UMP, which counts 364 activists established in Germany and sections in Berlin, Frankfurt, Cologne, Düsseldorf, and Freiburg, according to Paul Clave.
NP: Will you vote yourself, and how will you do it?
PR: Yes, I will do it… in Nice and by proxy. I have never renounced voting!! and in Nice that I love, where I have an apartment and which remains the field of my professional activity. It remains difficult to vote in Germany, but great strides have been made this year. However, some must travel 200 km to reach the nearest polling station (consulates, embassy…), but they can use a proxy. There will be many voters this year among the 46,500 registered in Germany, I’ll bet on it.
NP: Which candidate, in your view, comes closest to German politics?
PR: None! It’s not comparable and hard to judge before the first meetings between heads of states.
The SPD (German Socialist Party) is much more centrist than the French PS, closer to Bayrou. The PS is rather like the German PDS, the former East German communists, but less extremist. Finally, the CDU (center-right) is closer to Sarkozy. But none closely resemble German politics: here, the unions are stronger but strike much less, there is less desire for state intervention, but regions are politically stronger.
The past has shown that it is often human relationships, more than political colors, that bring us closer to Germany: Giscard (UDF) and Schmidt (SPD), Mitterrand (PS) and Kohl (CDU), Schroeder (SPD) and Chirac (UMP). As for Villiers, Le Pen, Besancenot, and Bové, they are unique and incomparable with German politicians. Not to mention other exotics, unthinkable in a country where 5 major parties share the votes, no more.
NP: Finally, in your opinion, who will be the two candidates in the second round?
PR: I only say beware of polls, only the ballot counts. So I won’t make a prediction because a first round is never played. I prefer to give the floor to German journalists through this brief press review:
The Süddeutsche Zeitung: “For me, there is no doubt about the presence of Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round. … The name of his opponent depends largely on the frivolity of certain voters who choose candidates who only present themselves to show their colors. If the French vote in as large numbers as last time for parties to the left of the PS, the breakthrough of the socialist candidate will be compromised, if not prevented.”
Finally, Die Welt contemplates the possible qualification of Mr. Bayrou in the second round but raises the following question: “Then the question would arise as to who he would want to govern with. He would not have a majority in the June legislative elections and thus could not also reform the principle of majority voting. Create a new party? Dissolve the Assembly? Exciting from a journalistic point of view! But undesirable for the country — and for Germany, which needs a politically stable France to get Europe back on track.”
