The devil is always in the details. Those of small political phrases uttered, for example, over a weekend. Despite their proclaimed “transparency,” they appear as a formidable palimpsest that requires deciphering. With uncertain conclusions. The statements by Claude Bartolone regarding an agreement between DSK and Martine Aubry to designate the Socialist Party’s candidate for the presidential election, which would render the primary organization a mere “confirmation,” fall into this category.
If it wants to win the upcoming presidential elections, the Socialist Party must not only focus on drafting a program: it seems, moreover, not to be much concerned with it. An indication likely to shed light on the stakes of these elections. It must also not aim to appease susceptibilities to differentiate candidates during a primary. It needs to consider a “simple” enigma: that of the National Front. The fact that Martine Aubry “discusses” with Dominique Strauss-Khan, in fact, is not a bad sign in this matter. For a long time, one could think that the splendid isolation and surprising inertia of the first Secretary served as her strategy. The one that consists of remaining discreet on sensitive issues and letting the criticism focus on the President of the Republic’s person. Doing nothing while waiting for a far-right score higher than the conservative candidate on the evening of the first round. A configuration ensuring her victory in the second round, no matter the arithmetic calculations. Taken seriously on Rue de Solférino, the hypothesis of an “April 22 in reverse” authorized the Mayor of Lille to disregard alliances, dismiss other contenders, and demand unity within her ranks. Has this option run its course? The emergence, in recent days, of DSK’s name becomes all the more symptomatic of changes as the entourage of the IMF’s Managing Director had so far strived to keep the man with three letters well away from the public arena to avoid, if one dares say so, demystifying him. Should we see in this the early successes of Nicolas Sarkozy’s security policy intended to regain part of his working-class electorate?
If it continues, the early exposure of the former Finance Minister would then confirm the shift of the 2012 deadlines to questions of personality, style, and behavior. The French are indeed mostly convinced that the left will not do significantly better than the right, that it will not reverse the retirement age vote to 62, and that it will maintain an economic policy that is decided, for efficiency reasons, in major European and international forums. One only needs to read the enlightening articles dedicated this week by Courrier International to the file entitled “Save the Welfare State.” From the late historian Tony Judt to the Times editorialist, the reader clearly perceives the inextricable challenge of preserving and promoting a social democracy that is both politically credible and responsible in its economic choices. The State may be the “last bastion of democracy” for the first author, yet it “no longer has the means to provide social welfare for the second.”
The Socialist Party is precisely experiencing this squaring of the circle with Martine Aubry and DSK, who respectively embody the political and economic aspect of this scenario: without the support of the Mayor of Lille’s troops, who are not very favorable to the IMF’s Managing Director, the latter has no chance of being designated in the primaries. Without DSK’s social-democratic figure, the PS has little chance against Nicolas Sarkozy. The double enigma remains of Marine Le Pen and a National Front that its new president will undoubtedly seek to better “legitimize” in the French political landscape. Thus, one understands the first Secretary’s dilemma about this “not yet won” presidential election: she must accept the idea of yielding to consider the idea of winning.
