Will the European Union raise its climate ambition and, above all, give itself the means to achieve it? On November 28th, the Commission defended its vision of a “climate neutral” Europe by 2050. Compared to the current target for the same deadline, a reduction of 80% in greenhouse gas emissions, this is a significant leap (1) and would align the Union with the Paris climate agreement.
On March 18th, the members of the European Parliament voted by a large majority in favor of this proposal, which is non-binding. They also called for strengthening the targets for 2030: aiming for a 55% reduction in emissions instead of the current 40% (compared to 1990 levels). However, the member states still do not agree on raising their common ambition for 2030 and 2050. Achieving this by 2020 and thus honoring the UN commitments will be a challenge. Only seven countries (Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Italy) have adopted a neutrality target (or are going beyond -80% by 2050), which does not necessarily mean they are on track to achieve it.
Accelerating the pace. Looking at the progress made, the Union is already on track to meet its commitment to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020. It had achieved a 22% reduction by 2017. However, this result is partly attributable to the 2008 crisis. Since 2014, emissions, far from continuing their decline, have increased. Among other causes is the unchecked tendency of Europeans to drive more, in increasingly larger cars. The current trend is not compatible with the 40% reduction targeted for 2030, which is itself far from the trajectory required by the Paris agreement, as recognized by members of the European Parliament in March. As for renewable energy, Europe should reach its target of 20% of final consumption by 2020, despite some countries lagging significantly behind2, but will need to accelerate the pace to achieve the 32% target for 2030. However, substantial efforts will be needed particularly in energy savings. Due to rising energy demand since 2014, consumption fell by only 9% between 2005 and 2017, when Europe committed to reaching a 13% reduction by 2020 and 26% by 20303.
Europe will not be able to raise ambition and common standards if it does not change its philosophy in parallel. The climate imperative today crashes against inequalities between regions and member states. Despite efforts to establish an “Energy Union” (the European Union is still 70% dependent on largely imported coal, oil, and gas), individual interests prevail. The road to Europe’s climate neutrality involves new economic rules for greater solidarity among its citizens.
A. R., Alternatives รฉconomiques
