This Tuesday, November 8, following the tradition since 1789 (at the time, the former British colonies were an agricultural country and November, considering the distances to travel to the few voting stations back then, was the most suitable month to be freed from fieldwork), Americans will elect their president under the highly interested eyes of all the inhabitants of the world.
This day will mark the end of a very long 18-month electoral campaign (including primaries).
While the results will come from the ballots, one prediction is possible: Hillary Clinton is credited with a 6.5% possibility of victory against 35.5% for Donald Trump (source: fivethirtyeight).
If this option is confirmed, she will be the first female president of the United States, succeeding Barack Obama, who was the first African American.
Through the system of indirect universal suffrage, candidates for the White House must obtain the majority of votes in each state to secure all of the electoral college votes.
When 130 to 140 million American voters (out of 200 million registered) head to the polls – in reality, 35 to 40 million of them have already cast their votes by mail or early voting – they won’t directly vote for the candidate of their choice.
In the United States, indeed, the presidential election is conducted through indirect universal suffrage. Presidents are not elected based on the number of popular votes received but by the electoral college members appointed by their party. A system that dates back to the 18th century.
Each state has a number of electoral college members equivalent to the number of its senators (invariably two per state) and representatives in the House of Representatives.
As of today, polls give Hillary Clinton 253 “secured” votes, Donald Trump 163, and 122 are unassigned or uncertain*.
The “swing states,” those that can swing the result by switching sides, are considered to be Florida (29 seats), Ohio (18), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4).
The state of Nevada is considered the “bellwether state” (literally the leading sheep state) which, since 1976, has voted 9 times out of 10 for the right candidate, the one who became president!
