The statutes of the UMP are clear: with the presidency of the Republic lost, the party must elect a new leader, installed during a congress that will be held no later than six months after the presidential election, between September 30 and November 30. And this opportunity is sharpening appetites. What will be the stance of local politicians?
If Eric Ciotti immediately and clearly expressed his support for François Fillon, Christian Estrosi, who willingly defines himself as a “social Gaullist,” recently released a statement defending him against accusations leveled at him after an electoral campaign where traditional values and a clear and unambiguous stance towards the FN were somewhat compromised.
However, Christian Estrosi is also a fervent supporter of Nicolas Sarkozy’s return to politics, even if tactically, the former President of the Republic and leader of the right is currently playing the role of Cincinnatus. There will still be time, after the European elections in 2014 and depending on the result, to lay down the plow and pick up the crossbow again.
Is this a tactical positioning of the two in relation to the national political scene, or the first cracks between the two heavyweights of local politics? And knowing that Michèle Tabarot is a staunch supporter of the current UMP secretary… We are waiting to see how alliances will form, deform, and even reform!
With the stature he gained during the last quinquennat, former Prime Minister François Fillon is one of the few “statesmen” on the right capable of running for the highest office in 2017. But to aim for the Élysée, one must first appear as the leader of one’s own political family. He, who often claims not to have a career plan, also likes to chase circumstances. Here is one with the UMP presidency. And it is he who will have triggered hostilities by asserting that his party no longer had a “natural leader” and that he was standing as a candidate to fill this void.
François Fillon wants to embody a right wing closer to the center, reformist, and strong in its conviction: the responsibility in managing public expenditures. For this, the former Prime Minister enjoys enormous sympathy among parliamentarians, despite the upheavals of the past quinquennat.
His chances are very high. François Fillon is leading in the polls, even though these are never conducted solely among UMP members, who will be the ones deciding. On the ground, his popularity is unmatched. And in meetings, when he speaks, either before or after Jean-François Copé, he is always the most applauded.
Jean-François Copé, UMP Secretary General since 2010 after having been the President of the UMP group in the Assembly, has ambitions known to all, and everyone has understood that he wants to remain the leader. To obtain the position, he attempts to follow in the footsteps of Nicolas Sarkozy. An uncomplexed, modern right, supposed to appeal to the militants. He also imagines that the internal election will be decided on the right. The problem is that the substantial defeat in the legislative elections will be held against him.
For several years, notably in his presidency of the UMP group in the Assembly and then in the Party leadership, Jean-François Copé has woven a powerful network.
Finally, for Alain Juppé, the mission of the future leader “will be to direct the UMP, to ensure the cohesion of the party in its diversity.” If the Copé-Fillon duel goes awry, he will be there and able to please everyone, he could be urged by many big names to take the helm of the party as a great unifier.
So, a seat for three, and if François Fillon starts as the natural favorite, there is no doubt that his two other rivals will do everything to overturn the trend.
Summer will be hot at the heart of the UMP…
