Christian Estrosi will host the first public meeting of Friends of Nicolas Sarkozy this weekend in his city of Nice. Could this be the opportunity, and the right one, to announce, even if unofficially as it seems to be taken for granted, his decision to run for the presidency of the UMP which will take place in November?
In truth, candidates are not lacking and after the two heavyweights, François Fillon and Jean-François Copé, other outsiders have entered the race, the ambitious forty-somethings Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, Bruno Le Maire, and Xavier Bertrand, who are rumored to have the backstage support of Nicolas Sarkozy.
They all carry ideas, values, and convictions that often do not rest on anything truly concrete. But, eventually, don’t we call ideas those that are merely back thought useful for personal ambitions in the battle of chiefs that is looming this autumn?
Sure, competition has its virtues, but at least spare us the fake fight, the pseudo-battle of ideas against… what exactly?
Christian Estrosi continues to assure in the media the “neutrality” of his stance, several events show that he has practiced a joyful blend of roles between his functions as deputy mayor, secretary-general, and “officially unofficial” candidate for the presidency of the UMP.
“Furthermore, at the end of August, if our values and ideas are not taken up by the candidates for the Presidency of the UMP, I will announce my intention to run for the presidency of the UMP to continue to collectively uphold our convictions: social justice, respect for the law, the power of authority, the primacy of the Nation, sovereignty, recognition of merit, reward of work, solidarity towards the weakest, defense of our industry or also the encouragement of innovation.
This approach, I will conduct in a spirit of unity, not in service to a personal ambition but with a desire to prepare our movement to lead a strong and constructive opposition and organize the reconquest of our territories starting in 2014.”
As a savvy politician, Christian Estrosi resorted to lexical contortion and a display of balance and grammatical gymnastics to say and not say his intentions.
It is true that his margin for action is quite narrow:
On a territorial level, his (former?) right-hand man, the deputy-president of the General Council Eric Ciotti has declared for François Fillon (of whom he is even the campaign director) as well as the deputy mayor of Antibes Jean Léonetti while Jean-François Copé is cementing his influence through the actions of the deputy mayor of Le Cannet Michèle Tabarot and the municipal, community, and general councilor and his deputy at the town hall, the Nice native Olivier Bettati.
On a national level, according to the recent poll published by the JDD, he only has a modest 1% support.
Deprived of his traditional allies and local supports, without a national establishment worthy of the name, Christian Estrosi’s gambit is high-risk. Because in politics ambitions are all good and well, but the balance of power also holds its importance.
Should we recall what Winston Churchill wrote in his memoirs when he mentioned his colloquy with Stalin regarding the communist takeover of Catholic Poland during World War II and the certain opposition of Pope Pius II to this action: “The Pope? How many divisions?”
We know that Christian Estrosi is a free and rebellious political bird, but the question is legitimate: Will he see his intentions through to the end, or is this simply a bluff?
