If there is one thing not to do at the moment, it is to bet on the name of the next President of the Republic, as the result still seems uncertain less than three weeks before the election!
Unless there is a new twist in this campaign, which is not lacking, it is almost certain that everything will be decided between Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, and Marine Le Pen.
But the order of arrival on the evening of the first round is far from being set in stone. If, on a whim, the National Front candidate is in a position to qualify – and perhaps even to lead on the evening of April 23 – there could very well be a photo finish for the En Marche! candidate and the Republican candidate.
Because the volatility of the electorate and the margins of error in the polls do not yet allow the two men to be promised heaven or hell. And woe to the one who comes in third…
What is striking about this event is the indecision shared by a large part of the electorate: never before have so many people declared that they were still able to change their vote so close to the goal in these Presidential elections.
The pollsters, who have consistently gotten it wrong in recent years, will end up tearing out their last hairs. This uncertainty of fate, which is far from glorious, says a lot about the state of the relationship between the French and their political representatives. The fate of the country still interests them – and worries them – but many no longer believe in the system. They have been promised too much, about purchasing power, about an exemplary Republic, and promises have not been kept.
Marine Le Pen and François Fillon each have a real “hard core” of voters, convinced in their vote. This is less true for Emmanuel Macron, who, like the “broom wagon” of the Tour de France, picks up disoriented voters from a broad center, ranging from Bayrou to Valls, including socialist ministers (Le Drian) and former Chirac loyalists.
Understand who may. Chemists would find the formula particularly “unstable.”
The new political landscape that will emerge from the polls indicates complicated days ahead. It will be necessary to piece together scattered parts, to draw new boundaries that will no longer necessarily be ideological. A vast program!
by Jean-Miche Chevalier, Les Petites Affiches
