Finally, there will be 8 candidates at the start this Sunday, including Frédérique Grégoire (PS), Aude Maisonneuve (Identitaires), André Chauvet (DD), Sami Cheniti (DG), Yvon Guesnier (Alternatifs), Robert Injey (PC), Benoît Kandel (UMP), and Patrick Villardy (DD). From this group, probably only two will emerge, likely to be the deputy mayor of the city of Nice, Benoît Kandel, and the opposition municipal counselor, Frédérique Grégoire Concas, setting the stage for a high-level duel.
A Second Round Full of Lessons
Let’s position ourselves on Sunday evening at the start of the night when the first results will come out from the ballot boxes from Saint Roch to Mont Boron. The first analysis will be on the gap between the first place and the runner-up, who will emerge in pole position from this first round and what will be their lead—two questions that will set the tone for the coming week. Logically, Frédérique Grégoire Concas should be slightly favored, but everyone knows that logic in politics is as fluctuating at the local level as at the national level. So even if the identitaire or alternative candidates from Nice will certainly not be invited to the second round’s ball, they will still account for a few hundred votes that the two competing candidates must seek out.
Another very important piece of information are the scores of André Chauvet, supported by the former mayor, Jacques Peyrat and his “Entente Républicaine,” and of Sami Cheniti, backed by Patrick Mottard and his “Left Differently.” If one imagines that Patrick Mottard’s voters would willingly turn towards the socialist candidate, the mystery remains complete regarding the transfer of votes stemming from André Chauvet’s candidacy. It would not be the first time that the Entente Républicaine plays nice with the leftist forces in Nice in an election by not calling to vote for the UMP candidate. Both candidates will pay close attention to these results to then hit the campaign trail again for a marathon final week.
Agreements and Disagreements
But, besides the multiple encounters with the electorate of the canton, the two contenders to succeed Patrick Allemand will have their work cut out to rally the other candidates who, though defeated, still carry a significant weight in the electoral balance. Will the Mottard/Allemand feud fade away to allow room for an agreement? Will the resentment from the Entente Républicaine towards the current majority be minimized to support the UMP candidate? No one knows yet today and it will be necessary to wait until Monday for the first rumors to circulate here and there.
The campaign continues for now with the candidates’ omnipresence in the field during events or rallies but also in the web space where Frédérique Grégoire Concas and Benoît Kandel have set up to lead a more virtual campaign with their websites – www.frederique-gregoire-concas.com and https://benoitkandel.hautetfort.com/. For the rest, as usual, posters and flyers accompanied by grand promises will bloom the neighborhoods during the week before the final verdict on May 9th.
However, a shadow over this election which might just set a record, but unfortunately, it would be one of abstention, as it is squeezed between the weekends of May 1st and May 8th. This cantonal election in the twelfth canton might indeed suffer from the sun, the beach, and relaxation. It is difficult, therefore, to anticipate more than 20 to 25 % participation in this first round among the roughly 13,000 registered voters of the canton.
On your marks, get set… Vote!
Candidates (in order according to the prefectural draw)
– Frédérique Grégoire Concas (deputy: Patrick Allemand)
– Robert Injey (deputy: Roseline Grac)
– Benoît Kandel (deputy: Denise Fabre)
– Aude Maisonneuve (deputy: Philippe Vardon)
– Patrick Villardry (deputy: Joëlle Nighersoli)
– Sami Cheniti (deputy: Audrey Meunier)
– Yvon Guesnier (deputy: Alice Ribiére)
– André Chauvet (deputy: Antoinette Franchi)
