Will the French have to face a fourth wave of Covid-19 infections? Concerns are rising. The Pasteur Institute believes it’s likely, especially if vaccination doesn’t progress significantly. However, it’s slowing down in June 2021, while the vaccination rate that researchers deem necessary to prevent a new wave of hospitalizations is far from being achieved.
High vaccination rates that France has yet to reach
In a model forecasting the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic for the fall of 2021, updated on June 28, 2021, by the Pasteur Institute, the situation is analyzed assuming vaccination rates are as follows: 30% for those aged 12-17, 70% for those aged 18-59, and 90% for those over 60, across all vaccines. However, France is far off track.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, to reach these levels of vaccine coverage, distribution would need to increase significantly over the summer. By the end of June 2021, only 70% of those over 60 in France were fully vaccinated. As for vaccination rates in other age groups, they are even lower: only 12.8% of those aged 18-24 are vaccinated, and only 43% of those aged 50-59.
Moreover, even with vaccination rates matching those forecasted by the Pasteur Institute—which are still far from being met—the fall could see a significant increase in Covid-19 cases, particularly driven by new variants, including the Delta variant.
Restrictive measures at the end of summer 2021 to combat the pandemic?
While all French citizens, especially the government, hope that health restriction measures are finally a thing of the past, the Pasteur Institute has bad news. There’s a real risk that they will need to be reinstated in the fall. “A certain level of control over the epidemic may be necessary this autumn,” the researchers write.
The reason? “A significant peak in hospitalizations is possible in the absence of any control measures over the epidemic,” they estimate for this fall. It could even be “similar to the peak of autumn 2020” which led to the second lockdown in October 2020.
