The French economy, after 3 years of insufficient growth, is experiencing average growth of +0.6% per quarter. This year will no doubt show the strongest growth since 2011, specifically +2.1%.
This results from a superb set of circumstances since 2017: incredibly low interest rates and commodity prices at a particularly low level.
For years, French growth was abnormally lower than that of neighboring countries. This new French growth is strong and solid because all the right conditions are in place.
Firstly, because France has a backlog to catch up on in terms of activity growth and in terms of jobs and investments. There is a good dynamic in external demand and a good dynamic in internal growth, and wages are beginning to rise, especially in the industry (more than 2%). Thus, in the medium term, there is a positive economic dynamic in France.
However, it must be noted that this observed economic recovery is not felt by everyone in France. This is not a hypothetical psychological problem but the reality of an uneven recovery at the regional and territorial levels. Some regions have a growth rate of 9%, while others are experiencing a decline of 7%. The French recovery is therefore present but unevenly distributed.
The economy is not an exact science; it is a human science. Human questions are a major parameter. The recovery is underway, but job recovery is not following. This can be explained by the slowing effect of the social protection system and the slow recovery of confidence in the economy. This confidence will not be restored as long as foreign trade is heavily in deficit and the public spending deficit is high.
To continue on a note of optimism, it should be noted that the fundamental indicators are positive, particularly that of investment.
The French economy has a major need for investment (just like the global economy); we are changing economic models and therefore will need to invest massively (in trillions of USD) on a global scale and tens of trillions of euros in France directly injected into the real economy, into business infrastructure and equipment, into human capital, meaning productive investment.
