Here’s news that will undoubtedly bring a smile back to the government’s face.
Indeed, Insee has just revised upwards its initial growth estimate for the fourth quarter of 2015. According to public statisticians, the GDP has now increased by 0.3% over the last three months of the year, rather than the 0.2% estimated at the end of January.
However, despite this revision, the overall diagnosis is unchanged: on average for the year, growth still stands at 1.1% after 0.2% in 2014.
In detail, Insee also revised its estimate of household consumption. Initially announced as a decline of 0.4%, it ultimately would have decreased by only 0.2%, despite the still strong impact of the Paris attacks and particularly mild temperatures. Again, for the whole of 2015, the household consumption estimate remains unchanged with an increase of 1.4%, marking “the strongest rise since 2010.”
On the investment side, their increase remains unchanged at 0.7% for the quarter despite a downward revision of household investments (to -1% from 0.1% announced). Business investments grew by 1.3% at the same time. For the full year, total investment remains in the red, but less so than in 2014: -0.2% compared to -1.2% in 2014.
Regarding foreign trade, the balance once again weighs on GDP growth (-0.5 points in the fourth quarter of 2015, after -0.7 points),” notes Insee. “For the whole of 2015, the contribution of the external balance to growth remained negative (-0.3 points), but less so than in 2014 (-0.5 points),” public statisticians add.
