In recent weeks, a few hundred residents of Nice have been surveyed by phone by a polling institute commissioned by the national UMP, certainly eager to take the pulse of the voters in France’s fifth-largest city. This institute or its sponsor did not delve deeply into their research and have strayed from the reality on the ground. As a result, there is a certain ambiguity about the results. Candidates already declared include Patrick Allemand (PS – 15%), Patrick Mottard (Various Left – 10%), Rudy Salles (New Center – 5%), and Jean Icart (Various Right – 1%), as well as other local politicians such as Hervé Caël (MoDem – 3%), Rémy François (National Front – 4%), and Bruno Della Sudda (Alternatives – 2%) who have not yet announced their intention to join the municipal race. The latter are even closer to not running if we believe their statements. But after all, why not…
The criticism is easy, so let’s not hold back! For example, Patrick Allemand’s PS list is hastily associated with the Greens, the PC, and the MRG, who have not yet positioned themselves on the choice of the left list they will support in the next municipal elections. These alliances could well throw numbers into disarray, rendering them obsolete. What to think of the list of the outgoing Mayor, Jacques Peyrat, credited with a surprising 10%, which might further encourage him to go for it, no matter what, despite the first defections of some of his team members such as Olivier Bettati, Bernard Asso, and André Barthe, who have publicly announced their support for the candidacy of the Minister of Overseas and President of the General Council of the Alpes-Maritimes. Could they be the first of many to jump ship from the Republican Entente? On the right side, another question arises: will the very low forecasts for the votes garnered by Jean Icart (Various Right) and Rudy Salles (New Center) lead to a change in strategy? They may hide behind the approximations of this survey to continue their individual ventures. But for how long? The New Center candidate on his blog reminds readers that the campaign has not yet been launched and for now, this is all political fiction. However, he sees “the highlighting of the distance the people of Nice have placed between themselves and the outgoing Mayor and the interest they show in a potential candidacy by Christian Estrosi.”
On the left, the primary in the form of a municipal ballot is now officially launched and if the numbers today seem to give an advantage to the PS list led by Patrick Allemand, the games of alliances with other left parties in Nice (PRG, Greens, PC, and Alternatives) are not yet complete, and tomorrow could be a different day for the local left. All scenarios still largely place the right in pole position in Nice as in many municipalities of the Alpes-Maritimes, but polls are polls, and only the truth from the ballot box in March will count. Didn’t the Nice Purielle list nearly create an upset in 2001, trailing by only 3,700 votes when these famous polls had given Jacques Peyrat a large victory?
In short, this first survey has sparked reactions both from the right and the left, without however diverting any candidates from their main goal: to take office at Nice’s City Hall starting in March 2008.
