The international community is mobilizing again for Lebanon, not just in words but in deeds: an almost uninterrupted stream of American and Arab countries’ planes delivering various military and public security materials to allow the Lebanese army to avoid getting bogged down in a fight with Islamist militants entrenched in the Nahr Al-Bared camp, diplomatic activism by Westerners who are speeding up procedures for the creation of an International Tribunal at the United Nations to judge the perpetrators of Rafic Harriri’s assassination, a “solidarity visit” by the new French Foreign Minister deemed “excellent” by Lebanese authorities who quickly hope for its materialization in the form of logistical aids from Paris.
Europe, the United States, and a number of Arab countries are therefore, for once, in unison. All these countries already have their hands full with sectarian killings in Iraq, fratricidal rivalries among Palestinians on the margins of their conflict with Israel, and Iranian nuclear threats. According to them, it is absolutely necessary to spare Lebanon from this spiral of violence. Even the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, seems to be keeping a low profile, devoting only the last five minutes of an hour-long speech to the “red lines” not to be crossed in these events.
However, the Lebanese expect the worst. They note, with the irony only they are capable of in this dramatic situation, that the first three explosions respected the “confessional distribution as in our movies,” respectively targeting Christians of Ashrafié, Sunni Muslims of the modern Verdun district, and Druzes from the heights of Aley. In other words, all opposition to Damascus. This fact alone is as explicitly signature-like as the probable results of the last referendum percentage in Syria. The Lebanese fear further explosions in the coming weeks until the International Tribunal is set up. The establishment of this Tribunal will finally deprive the dark forces, both from within Lebanon and from the big neighbor, that desperately try to torpedo its creation while clearly pointing out the guilty parties. Condemned to emerge victorious from this “operation” to avoid the total collapse of the country, the Lebanese army might also bring forth a suitable personality from among its ranks to become the next President of the Republic, a position reserved for a Christian since the Taëf Accords in 1989. The current Commander-in-Chief Michel Sleiman is thus a favorite, embodying a leader perceived as “fair” by a predominantly Shiite army, acclaimed upon its arrival in the very Sunni city of the north, Tripoli. The army, the ultimate unifying symbol of the country? As an Arab proverb says, from the worst might come the “best”… always relative when it comes to Lebanon.
