Although they disagree on most topics, American citizens agree on one thing: the country is threatened by “fascism” and the future of “democracy” is at stake in the upcoming elections. While the focus of American political debate on the “fascist” threat is relatively new, the idea that the upcoming election will be decisive for the future of American democracy is not.
Since the “stolen elections” of 2000, every sitting president has been considered illegitimate by a (growing) portion of the opposing camp, from George W. Bush to Donald Trump, including Barack Obama. And even in the event of a sweeping victory, as most opinion polls predict for him, Joe Biden will not escape this fate.
Claiming that the upcoming American presidential elections will be “the most important election of all time” is a slight exaggeration: one could easily argue that the November 1932 election in Weimar was not any less important.
However, it is certain that the electoral rendezvous on November 3rd will have a major impact on the United States and beyond. By deciding the future trajectory of a superpower, even a declining one, American voters will significantly influence global and European politics. Therefore, a good understanding of the stakes of this vote is of paramount importance for Europeans. Let us first see what the numbers say.
It is never easy to write an analysis that remains valid at the time of its publication. This task is even more complicated when it involves examining polls and the changing political mood of American voters.
Nonetheless, one can assert with some confidence that Joe Biden, the Democratic Party candidate, will win the popular vote; and probably by an even more comfortable margin than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 (she had then defeated Donald Trump by 2%, about three million votes!).
This, however, does not predict the final result of these elections, due to the undemocratic nature of the American political system. Let’s recall that in 2016, the Electoral College, over which rural America wields a disproportionate influence compared to its demographic weight, elected Donald Trump with a comfortable majority.
