The Banque de France has revised its growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 in its latest economic report…
While it is certain that France will experience record growth in 2021, among the highest in the European Union and possibly the world, and the highest in 50 years (at 6.7%), uncertainties remain for the following years.
A slight decrease, however: from 3.7%, the forecasts fall to 3.6%, with all uncertainties still in place. Fortunately, the Banque de France seems to foresee an improvement in the situation in 2023: the forecasts are revised upwards, from 1.9% to 2.2% growth. By 2024, growth returns to more traditional levels, settling, according to the Banque de France, at 1.4%.
The bad news is for households: inflation is expected to remain high, and may even increase in 2022. If in 2021, according to the Banque de France, inflation reaches 2.1% (1.3% excluding energy and food), it could rise to 2.5% in 2022 (1.8% excluding energy and food). The increase in the minimum wage from January 1, 2022, or the increase in the Livret A and LDDS rates from February 2022, will therefore not be sufficient to offset the price increases.
For 2023 and 2024, according to forecasts from December 19, 2020, inflation will fall to 1.5% and 1.6% respectively (or 1.7% excluding energy and food in both cases).
