The European Commission anticipates a public deficit of 2.9% of GDP in 2017, which allows Paris to fully comply with European rules that require states to control their expenditures.
This figure “does not include the reimbursement of the French tax on dividends,” which was invalidated by the French judiciary and is expected to eventually cost the state around 5 billion euros, nor the recapitalization of the nuclear group Areva. These two constraints “represent clear risks for the forecast and the correction of the deficit,” the Commission emphasizes. Furthermore, the Commission anticipates a deficit of 3% in 2019.
“Economic activity is expected to accelerate significantly in 2017, driven by strong growth in private investments and, in particular, a strong recovery in the housing market,” it writes. “Consequently, the unemployment rate should decrease considerably,” it adds.
According to the European Commission, the unemployment rate in France is expected to be 9.5% in 2017, then 9.3% in 2018, and 8.9% in 2019.
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