Marine Le Pen secured her ticket to the second round last Sunday — as expected. However, behind the façade, the satisfaction was mixed. She was anticipated to take the first place with a comfortable lead, but she had to settle for second place with a rather narrow advantage over François Fillon.
Observers point to an unsuccessful campaign. Polls predict a stinging defeat for her against the leader of En Marche.
Therefore, she needs to go on the offensive and challenge the favorite on topics that are her strong points: immigration + security = terrorism.
The equation doesn’t hold up, but MLP doesn’t care; these are the slogans that resonate with her voters: 37% of workers, 32% of employees but only 14% of higher socio-professional categories.
This allows her to assert that the confrontation is between the “patriots” (that is, the frontists) and the “globalists” (the supporters of the former Economy Minister).
Tonight, MLP will be in Nice (at 8 p.m. at the Palais Nikaia) for a major public meeting in this region that gave her significant support in the first round, placing her in first position in the department and far ahead in more than 100 municipalities, including some with moderate significance (Grasse, Cagnes, Saint-Laurent, Carros, Menton).
A department where the republican right is starting to crack between supporters of a blocking vote, loudly demanded by Christian Estrosi and his loyalists, and supporters of a “no-no” line which Eric Ciotti (and Lionnel Lucca/deputy-mayor of Villeneuve-Loubet) and his supporters passionately interpret.
There is no doubt that MLP will rub salt in the wounds of this opposition between the two strongmen of the territory, which also originates from their personal ambitions: how can one forget that after the presidential election, there will be legislative elections with new seats up for grabs.
With the local left out of the game, the “marchers” will have, in the case of their candidate’s success, the wind in their sails and spirits high, but the FN will also have its cards to play in the 9 local constituencies: in the prospect of triangular contests, in the absence of alliances, winks will be crucial.
