Undoubtedly, the legislative election of the first Nice canton will be the focus of all the attention of the political world in the Côte d’Azur. With four heavyweights from each camp (UMP, PS, FN, and Front de Gauche), the final outcome is far from assured for the incumbent Deputy, Eric Ciotti, even if he will nonetheless be the favorite in this election.
And while Eric Ciotti may be less confident than his allies in the other two Nice cantons (Rudy Salles in the 3rd and Christian Estrosi in the 5th), it’s because he faces strong opponents such as Patrick Allemand (PS), Jacques Peyrat (Entente Républicaine/FN), and Robert Injey (Front de Gauche). While the latter does not seem poised to secure a place in the second round, the same cannot be said for the other two socialist and nationalist candidates who are already envisaging themselves at the heart of the triangular contest that seems to be taking shape.
The right candidate for the Niçoise left?
While General Councilor Marc Concas, who had previously expressed great interest in this candidacy, was expected, it is ultimately Patrick Allemand who will be at the starting line under the Socialist Party colors. This is surprising when considering the involvement and positive image that the Nice lawyer has in the first Nice canton (Vieux-Nice/Port) and in the political life of the Côte d’Azur. Appreciated on the left and respected on the right, he seemed to be the man of the hour, having defeated Eric Ciotti in the partial cantonal election of 2008. But perhaps the calculations are different within the grand Socialist house, and perhaps there was too great a risk that Marc Concas might triumph again and thus become a natural candidate for the next municipal elections?
Jacques Peyrat, a first battle before the war?
He publicly announced it during the inauguration of his office: “I will be a candidate for the municipal elections and I will take back Nice.” One can easily imagine that this election will be a real test for the former Mayor of Nice, and a presence in the second round would add further credibility to his municipal candidacy. The question remains as to his position if he is present in the second round. Forecasts would rather place him behind Eric Ciotti and Patrick Allemand, but only the verdict of the ballots on June 10th will provide an answer to this question. Supported by the National Front and Niçoise identitarians, Jacques Peyrat has promised an uncompromising campaign, and knowing his eloquence…
Still according to these same forecasts, it will therefore be one hell of a triangular contest promised to the voters of the first constituency of Nice, and it would take a clever person to predict the exact order. In the last presidential election, it was Nicolas Sarkozy who emerged victorious from the ballots in the second round with 59.50% of the votes against 40.50% for François Hollande, while in the first round, the trend was similar with Nicolas Sarkozy at 35.05%, François Hollande at 22.29%, Marine Le Pen at 21.97%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 10.02%.
Without being high-flying mathematicians or political strategists, the incumbent Deputy logically seems to be the favorite, but it will certainly be necessary to wait until the evening of June 17th to see if the predictions are as reliable as the ballots…
