On the MoDem side, Hervé Caël will attempt to make things colorful for his opponents with his list “Nice Rainbow,” in alliance with the PRG and MEI, while Bruno Della Sudda will lead the NICEA list, positioned to the far left. On the far right, although the Nice identitarians of Nissa Rebela have had a longstanding presence, we will finally learn this weekend whether we should also expect a National Front (FN) list at the start line of the Nice municipal elections.
Is the National Front dying or heading to the slaughter?
Once rumored to be aligning with Philippe Vardon’s identitarians, it took numerous local and national interventions to finally decide to proceed. However, the latest scores of the National Front in Nice have seen a significant decline, raising questions about how the party’s list could possibly catch up, just 20 days before the first round, while other candidates have been actively campaigning for a long time. This election is likely to leave a bitter taste in a region that was once a stronghold of the French national movement.
The lists are arriving…
Patrick Mottard and Patrick Allemand announced the compositions of their lists a few days ago, revealing the identity of the 68 co-candidates. However, the same cannot be said for the two right-wing candidates as we must wait until tomorrow, Sunday, January 17th at the Palais de la Méditerranée, to see the complete team of Christian Estrosi, while Jacques Peyrat will not reveal his troops until Wednesday, January 20th at Acropolis.
While Jacques Peyrat’s list can be somewhat anticipated, little to no information is being shared about Christian Estrosi’s list, leading to speculation about the fate of all those who supported the candidacy of the President of the Alpes-Maritimes General Council, whether they are former Nice city councilors ousted by the Mayor or elected officials of the CANCA who preferred the official UMP endorsement over the option of the outgoing mayor, President of the same community of agglomeration: Will Dominique Estrosi be on the list, and in what position? Will Agnès Rampal handle education and new technologies as she did at City Hall? Will André Barthe be in charge of the list’s cultural activities? What about Gilbert Stellardo and Olivier Bettati?
In short, the list is long and there are only 68 spots, with about twenty names already known, thereby diminishing the hopes of some who, like Charles Aznavour, saw themselves at the top of the list!
Unofficial support could do damage
While municipal support has not yet officially been revealed, other more unofficial endorsements are fueling bar and market conversations in Old Nice and the Port. Indeed, the cantonal election of the first canton, not to belittle other elections, holds the most distinguished lineup with the incumbent general counselor, Marc Concas, primarily defending his crown against Eric Ciotti (UMP) and Céline Lacroix (Nice Autrement). You will have noticed, no candidate from the Republican Agreement on the first Nice canton and this choice sounds very much like a boost from the movement led by Jacques Peyrat in favor of the socialist candidate. The Mayor, during a speech, even praised “the excellent work being done by the General Counselor in this canton since his election.”
Who could have imagined this, just a few years ago, in the political divisions of the time where it seemed unimaginable that an official said to be “on the right” could quietly call his troops to support the “leftist” candidate.
Maybe this is also what opening up means?
A waltz with how many candidates…
All candidates have their sights set on the first round, yet some are already thinking about the much-anticipated second round that needs to be prepared, because, although polls at one point had Christian Estrosi as a possible winner in the first round, it is now certain there will indeed be a second. The real question is: How many candidates will participate in this second round?
Second round hypotheses
Christian Estrosi – Jacques Peyrat: The grand duel of the Azurian right will certainly not occur, at least not in this configuration because it’s hard to imagine no left-wing candidates in the second week with the candidacies of the two Patricks, Allemand and Mottard.
Christian Estrosi – Patrick Allemand – Jacques Peyrat: The configuration that currently gathers the most votes and which will offer a second round that could be even more surprising than the first. We know the enmity between Jacques Peyrat and Christian Estrosi, but will the Senator Mayor of Nice dare not call to vote right, thereby opening the door for his loyal supporters to favor the candidate he has in recent years labeled a Marxist? Opening, second part!
Christian Estrosi – Patrick Allemand – Jacques Peyrat – Patrick Mottard: A four-way race that might have seemed possible at one time but which today would have an excellent odd with the bookmakers.
Of course, many other configurations are conceivable, particularly given the hard-to-define score of Hervé Caël while the other candidates will need to pray to Saint Rita, the Nice patroness of hopeless cases, to hope to be present in the second round, which, however, does not mean they will have no weight in the final stretch of this second week which becomes reality for the presumed favorites.
And you, what second round do you imagine on the evening of March 9th next?
