The CSA/Nice Matin survey, published yesterday, triggered strong reactions and debates within the political microcosm of Nice. With 20 days to go before the first round, the candidates’ nerves are starting to be severely tested. The certainties for the incumbent mayor and the concerns for his challengers are taking shape.
Olivier Bettati casts doubt… “I am very surprised by Mr. Estrosi’s poor score, who, six years ago, in the same configuration was positioned significantly higher, ending up with 35.8% on the evening of the first round… Polls do not make elections, but the voters are the only ones who know that.”
The former mayor Jacques Peyrat, on the occasion of presenting his list, went even further, accusing the regional daily of being blatantly influenced by the generous advertising budget of the municipality (and the General Council) and, in this case, attempting to influence voters’ opinions while sprinkling his remarks with some commonly used epithets!
More “political” were the reactions of the two main rivals of Christian Estrosi who took advantage of this opportunity to revive an electoral campaign that, at least apparently, already has its winner, all this to become the main or even the only opponent.
The incumbent mayor, and the sole beneficiary of this information, had nothing to say: Others had already done it for him by publishing it with methodological casualness. Was it so complicated to specify that with this type of representative sample, the possible median margin is 4.5% (which creates a range between 0 and 9%)?
Enough to put the result into perspective and be able to add a question mark to its interpretation?
Statement from Patrick Allemand:
“3 weeks to convince that another perspective is possible.
Even if it’s just a poll, the one just published confirms the previous ones and the high level of voting intention in favor of the incumbent already in the first round. It also shows that I am now the only one able to prevent his election in the first round.
We absolutely must avoid this nightmarish scenario for the city, because giving him an absolute majority on March 23rd would be like giving him full powers and making him the absolute master of the city. Knowing his management methods, he would feel he could do anything.
Voters who are not resigned to a foregone scenario must understand that the time for a now sterile scattering is over. I am calling on them to rally around my candidacy. We must put me in the best possible situation on the evening of the first round to try to change the course of this election.”
Statement from Marie-Christine Arnautu:
“The only real polls will be those on March 23rd and 30th. 14% (BVA), 12% (CSA): these are the two estimates attributed to our Nice Bleu Marine list.
Both agree to unhesitatingly place Christian Estrosi back on his throne. This would therefore mean:
1/ That the incumbent mayor would be re-elected.
2/ That the socialist government candidate, after six years in the City Council, would not succeed in convincing one in five voters, proving that his ‘complicit opposition’ is now known to all.
3/ That the National Front list led by me would be the only one able to qualify for the second round to embody a true opposition to the incumbent mayor for the next six years.
At this stage of the campaign, and faced with a denial of democracy from the mayor and a systematic refusal to debate, I want to solemnly address the voters of Nice so that everyone is fully aware of what is at stake here.
The re-election of Christian Estrosi would be a tragedy for Nice. Worse, it would turn into a disaster if, by chance, a majority of citizens voted, from the first round, a tribute to the mayor’s disastrous management. Yet, I believe none of it.
Faced with a debt multiplied by 2.7 at the Metropolis, faced with a buried tram project that would bankrupt the city’s coffers and threaten the Center of Nice, faced with already voted tax increases and those in preparation, what, indeed, would be the meaning of such a vote? People of Nice, what has been done since 2008 has been against you, against Nice.
On the evening of March 23rd, say stop to continued mismanagement, stop to compromises, stop to clientelism, stop to lies, stop to double-talk in Paris and Nice, and finally stop to this local democracy being trampled.
More than ever, the Nice Bleu Marine vote is essential because we are the only political force capable of embodying the force of common sense, embodying a new way for Nice.”
